Fiscal effects: substitution moves revenue from the border to the domestic economy

6.1 Eight instruments touch a steelworks and its supply chain

Table 6.1 lists the taxes and levies that apply to steel imports, to a domestic steelworks and to its upstream suppliers. Four features matter for the analysis that follows.

Customs duties are levied on imports at the border. Under the common external tariff (CET) applied in 2023, billets, scrap, direct reduced iron and iron ore each bear 10%, sections 10%, rebar 20% and the most common wire-rod line 5% [P24]. A 0.2% African Union integration levy applies to imports from outside the African Union [P19]. The new harmonised ECCAS-CEMAC tariff applied in Cameroon from 1 January 2026 uses bands of 0 to 40%, but its steel lines had not been published at the time of writing [P23].

Value-added tax is neutral between imports and domestic production. VAT at 19.25% is charged on imports at the border and on domestic sales, with credit for tax paid on inputs; exports are zero-rated [P19]. Replacing an import with a domestic product therefore moves the point of collection rather than the amount of VAT, except that domestic production generates VAT on its own value added at each stage. For an exporting works, prompt refund of VAT credits on inputs becomes a condition of competitiveness.

Corporate income tax applies to profits, after incentives. The standard rate is 33%, including the 10% additional council tax, for companies with turnover above 3 bn FCFA, and a minimum tax of 2.2% or 5.5% of turnover applies depending on the tax regime [W05].

Payroll contributions and personal income tax apply to wages from the first day of operation. Employers pay 11.2% of salary to the national social insurance fund (CNPS), capped at a monthly salary of 750,000 FCFA, plus 1.5% to the housing fund (Crédit Foncier) and 1% to the National Employment Fund; employees pay 4.2% to the CNPS and 1% to the housing fund [P19][W06]. Personal income tax is progressive, reaching an effective top rate of 38.5% on net income above 5 million FCFA a year [W07].

Table 6.1 Taxes and levies relevant to steel imports, a domestic steelworks and its supply chain, Cameroon, 2026

Source: as cited in the table.

6.2 At the border, substitution is close to fiscally neutral while iron units are imported

The customs revenue that a domestic long-products industry could displace is modest. On the 2023 import composition, the CET yielded about US$15.2 million on billets, US$2.6 million on sections, US$0.4 million on wire rod and US$0.7 million on rebar imported under derogation, plus US$5.8 to 11.6 million on fabricated structures, which bear 10% or 20% depending on the line [C06][P24], derived. In total that is about US$25 to 30 million, or 15 to 18 bn FCFA at the 2023 average exchange rate [W13], derived.

Figure 6.1 shows what happens at the margin. Consider 100,000 tonnes a year of domestic rebar that displaces rebar rolled by existing mills from imported billets. The billets no longer imported would have paid about 3.0 to 3.3 bn FCFA in customs duty [P24][G34], derived. If the new rebar is melted from imported scrap and HBI (scenario S1 in Chapter 9), those inputs pay 10% duty too, about 2.8 to 3.1 bn FCFA, and the border loss almost disappears [P24][G34][W10], derived. Payroll-linked taxes and contributions on the roughly 170 direct jobs per 100,000 tonnes implied by RC-1 add a further 0.2 to 0.4 bn FCFA a year [F][P19][W06], derived. The net effect at the border and on payroll lies between minus 0.4 and plus 0.5 bn FCFA per 100,000 tonnes: close to neutral.

Source: CET [P24]; prices AISU [G34] and SteelOrbis [W10]; payroll rates PwC [P19][W06][W07]; jobs per tonne RC-1 [F]; wages assumed at 300,000 to 600,000 FCFA per month and effective income tax at 8 to 15% (Annex A). Illustrative; corporate income tax, VAT and incentives excluded.

With domestic iron units (scenario S3), the State collects no duty on the inputs, so the border account shows a loss of about 2.6 to 3.2 bn FCFA per 100,000 tonnes after payroll taxes. That loss must be recovered from taxes on domestic value added, which is exactly what domestic iron units create: profits taxed at 33% once incentives expire, wages, and upstream activity in mining, gas and transport. The fiscal case for import substitution is therefore the same as its foreign-exchange case. It rests on value added retained in the country, not on the border.

6.3 Domestic revenue: profits, wages and the upstream chain

Corporate income tax. At the statutory rate, each 1 bn FCFA of taxable profit yields 330 million FCFA of tax [W05]. How much a steelworks pays depends on its margins, which depend on its competitiveness at border prices (Chapter 7), and on the incentive regime. An industry that survives only behind a prohibition pays tax on rents extracted from domestic buyers; an industry that is competitive at import parity pays tax on genuine value added. The second is the sustainable base.

Payroll taxes. For Phase 1, an illustrative wage bill of 1.8 to 3.6 bn FCFA a year for about 500 employees would generate about 0.5 to 1.2 bn FCFA a year in employer and employee contributions and personal income tax, rising to about 1.1 to 2.7 bn FCFA at full capacity with about 1,100 employees [F][P19][W06][W07], derived and illustrative. These flows begin with operations and are not affected by profit-tax incentives.

Environmental tax. The 2026 Finance Law introduced an environmental tax of 5,000 FCFA per tonne of reinforcing bar (fer à béton), payable by local producers and importers alike [P19][P11]. For 300,000 tonnes of rebar and wire rod sold domestically, the gross amount would be up to 1.5 bn FCFA a year if all products were within its scope. Because existing producers already pay it, new production that displaces them changes the total little.

Upstream taxes. With domestic iron units, part of the fiscal base moves upstream. Natural gas is subject to a special tax of 70 FCFA per cubic metre introduced in 2023 [E11]; if it applied to gas used for direct reduction, it would amount to roughly 18,000 FCFA per tonne of direct reduced iron at 10 GJ of gas per tonne [E11][F], derived, a material cost whose applicability to industrial users should be clarified before any direct-reduction investment. Iron-ore mining pays ad valorem royalties under the 2023 Mining Code, and the State holds at least 10% of free, non-dilutable equity in mining companies [O36]; the royalty rate for iron ore was not found in accessible summaries [O36].

6.4 The 2025 incentive ordinance is generous in construction and conditional in operation

Ordinance No. 2025/002 of 18 July 2025 on investment incentives, ratified by Law No. 2025/015 of 17 December 2025, repeals the 2013 investment-incentive law and brings economic zones and public-private partnerships into a single framework [W08][R15]. Its structure matters for any industrial investor and for the fiscal cost of industrial policy (Table 6.2).

Eligibility. Heavy industry is an eligible sector (Article 3), while the mining, upstream petroleum and gas sectors, governed by their own codes, are excluded [W08]. Every applicant must submit a programme for local skills, technology transfer and priority recruitment of Cameroonian workers and subcontractors, and evidence that the financing is available (Article 6) [W08]. New projects must meet at least two of five criteria (Article 7): at least one direct job for each 50 million FCFA of planned investment; for industrial projects, national natural resources accounting for at least 50% of the value of inputs, excluding labour, water, energy and telecommunications, unless they are unavailable; an increase in value added of at least 30%; or exports and shipments within the customs union of at least 25% of turnover; the fifth, 40% Cameroonian products, applies to distribution [W08].

Installation phase (up to five years). Equipment and materials directly linked to the investment programme are exempt from customs duties and import VAT; registration duties on leases, land transfers, supply contracts and capital increases are waived; VAT on foreign services linked to the project and on loan interest is exempt; and property tax and the business licence are waived (Article 10) [W08].

Operating phase (up to five years; seven in economic zones). For investments above 5 bn FCFA (category C), the ordinance offers a reduced customs duty of 5% on equipment and spare parts, exemption from export duties, a credit against profit tax equal to 75% of the investment made, capped each year at half of declared profit and carried forward for up to five years (80% in priority development zones), five-year loss carry-forward and accelerated depreciation at twice the normal rate (Article 11) [W08]. Projects in economic zones benefit from an operating phase extended to seven years, inward-processing relief and temporary-admission arrangements (Articles 14 and 15) [W08]. The ports of Douala and Kribi are classified as economic zones [P10].

Transfers. Subject to the CEMAC foreign-exchange regulation, investors may transfer dividends, interest and liquidation proceeds freely (Article 19) [W08]. This is the channel through which part of the foreign exchange saved by a domestic works can flow back out, a point Chapter 9 takes into account.

Table 6.2 The investment-incentive framework of Ordinance No. 2025/002 as it applies to a large industrial project

Source: Ordonnance n° 2025/002 du 18 juillet 2025 fixant les incitations à l’investissement en République du Cameroun [W08]; ratification by Law No. 2025/015 [R15]; economic-zone status of Kribi port [P10].

Two observations follow. First, the ordinance’s own criteria favour the features that this paper identifies as economically valuable: national natural-resource inputs, value added and exports. An electric arc furnace that melts imported scrap and HBI would not meet the 50% national-resource criterion in its early phases, but the criterion becomes attainable as domestic scrap collection and Cameroonian iron units come on stream. Second, the profit-tax credit is large relative to profits in the early years of operation; depending on how the annual cap is applied in practice, profit tax could be substantially reduced for five to seven years. That is a legitimate tool to attract capital-intensive investment, but it means that the fiscal return in the first decade comes mainly from payroll, upstream activity and the multiplier effects of Chapter 4, not from corporate tax.

6.5 Principles for a fiscally responsible steel policy

With high debt-distress risk and IMF pressure to raise non-oil revenue and contain tax expenditures (Chapter 1) [P09][P32], the fiscal design of steel policy should follow four principles.

1. Prefer instruments that do not cost the budget. A tariff raises revenue; a prohibition does not; a procurement preference costs only the margin of preference. Tax holidays should be granted against measurable criteria, not by sector alone.
2. Tie incentives to the Article 7 criteria and monitor them. Jobs, national inputs, value added and exports are measurable. Publishing the tax expenditure of each convention, and reviewing compliance annually, would protect the credibility of the regime.
3. Recover border revenue from domestic value added. As iron units become domestic and customs revenue falls, the corresponding gain in profits, wages and upstream activity should be visible in the tax base. Clarifying the application of the gas tax and of iron-ore royalties in advance would let investors price them and let the State count on them.
4. Keep exporters whole on VAT and duties. Inward processing and prompt VAT refunds are what make export competitiveness possible; they are not concessions but conditions of the zero-rating principle.