Evidence gaps: what is not yet known, and how it will be resolved

11.1 Trade and price data

Detailed imports for 2024 and 2025. Cameroon had not reported its 2024 and 2025 trade to UN Comtrade at the time of writing [C06]. The INS publishes chapter totals [C04][C05], but the split between billets, flat products and sections, and the origin of billets, is available only for 2023. The large increase in chapter 72 volume in 2025 (33%) could reflect billets, flat products or both, with different implications. Customs data at the 6-digit or national-tariff-line level, which the Directorate General of Customs holds, would resolve this.

Domestic prices and their tax treatment. The latest homologated rebar prices found are those of October 2023 [C44], and the source does not state whether they include VAT. This single detail moves the estimated gap between domestic prices and duty-paid import parity from 3 to 17% to 23 to 40% (Chapter 3). A published, dated price list from the Ministry of Commerce, with its VAT basis, and a periodic survey of transaction prices for rebar, wire rod and sections in Douala, Yaoundé and regional towns would close this gap and would form part of the scoreboard proposed in Chapter 10.

Section prices and demand. No public price series exists for medium and heavy sections in Central Africa. The footprint of Chapter 9 relies on assumptions anchored on rebar prices and on Comtrade unit values from 2019 and 2020 [C06]. A market study of section demand by size and grade, including fabricated structures for energy and port projects, would refine both the volume and the price assumptions for Phases 2 and 3.

11.2 Iron units, energy and logistics

Scrap arising. The only quantified study of ferrous scrap in Cameroon estimated 53,000 to 62,000 tonnes a year in 2006 [C42]. The existing mills report that local scrap covers about 40% of their needs [C38], but no recent estimate of national arising, collection or quality exists. Scenario S2 of Chapter 9 uses the RC-1 planning level of 30,000 tonnes a year of domestic scrap for a new works, within a range of 0 to 60,000 tonnes [F]; where in that range the works lands, without starving existing mills, is a central uncertainty. A share of 40% of the charge, about 145,000 to 484,000 tonnes a year, is not available on current evidence. A national scrap survey is a recommendation of Chapter 10.

Ore quality and the direct-reduction route. Direct reduction needs high-grade, low-gangue feed, usually as pellets. Whether Cameroonian ore can be concentrated to direct-reduction grade at commercial scale, at what cost and from which deposits, has not been established in any public feasibility study. The local-transformation obligation in the Mining Code and in conventions [W09][O17] creates the legal basis; the technical basis requires testwork, pilot pelletising and a supply agreement. The iron-ore royalty rate under the 2023 Mining Code was not found in accessible summaries [O36].

Gas. Certified remaining reserves of the Sanaga Sud field, the main producing gas system near Kribi, are not public; the larger Yoyo-Yolanda resource has no final investment decision [E02]. Whether the special tax on natural gas applies to industrial users was not confirmed [E11]. These questions determine both the cost and the feasibility of gas-fired reheating and of any direct-reduction module.

Power. There is no published tariff for loads above 10 MW [E15]. The commissioning of the 400 kV transmission line that would release 150 MW of unmet industrial demand was rescheduled to November 2026 [E16], and the 225 kV line and substation serving the Kribi industrial zone are planned for commissioning at the end of 2026 [Z43]. The power price used in Chapter 7 is a range for this reason.

Freight and port costs. Freight and port costs are assumptions in this paper, cross-checked against UNCTAD’s regional average [W12]. Quotations for bulk metallics and break-bulk steel into Kribi, and published port tariffs, would replace them.

11.3 Trade rules

Origin and tariffs. The valuation basis of the CEMAC 30% value-added origin test for steel [W11], the product-specific AfCFTA rules of origin for chapter 72 and Cameroon’s AfCFTA schedule for steel [P31], and the steel-line rates of the harmonised ECCAS-CEMAC external tariff applied since January 2026 [P23] could not be verified. Each affects the margin on regional sales. The CEMAC Commission, the Directorate General of Customs and the AfCFTA e-Tariff Book are the sources.

EU market access. The Economic Partnership Agreement group in which steel products fall was not verified [P22], and default values and benchmarks for the EU carbon border mechanism continue to be revised [D04].

11.4 Economic structure and policy texts

Input-output and multipliers. The most recent published social accounting matrix for Cameroon describes 2016 [W02], before the expansion of domestic wire-rod rolling and before the trade shifts of 2024 and 2025. It aggregates basic metals with articles of metal. A supply-use table with a separate iron and steel branch, which the INS could compile from its national accounts, would allow a Cameroon-specific steel multiplier to replace the bounded ranges of Chapters 4 and 5.

Wages and employment. Wage levels in the steel sector are assumptions in Chapters 6 and 7 (Annex A). Data from the social insurance fund or a sector survey would refine the payroll-tax and cost estimates.

Implementing texts of the 2025 incentive ordinance. How the annual cap on the profit-tax credit is applied, how the credit interacts with the minimum tax on turnover, and how the transitional arrangements apply to files lodged under the 2013 law, depend on implementing texts and practice [W08]. These determine the fiscal profile analysed in Chapter 6.

Population. The provisional census count of 22.7 million, against World Bank and IMF estimates of 29.88 million [C13][C14], changes every per-capita indicator by about a quarter. The final census results will settle it.

11.5 Excluded by design

Investment costs, financing terms and investment returns are not estimated in this paper. They will be established through feasibility studies and financing processes and are not needed for its conclusions, which concern the economy rather than the project. Their absence means that the cost comparisons of Chapter 7 are cash costs only and that the foreign-exchange figures of Chapter 9 are before capital service.

Table 11.1 Evidence gaps, their effect on the analysis, and how they will be resolved

Source: Cameroon Steel, from the sources cited in Chapters 1 to 10.

Cameroon Steel will update this paper as these gaps close. Updated figures will carry the same source markers and status labels, so that readers can see which conclusions have moved and why.