Labs · Import-substitution simulator
What share of steel imports could local production replace?
A real share for billets, 78% of which came from Indonesia; almost none for rebar, whose domestic market is already saturated.
Result
Derived—%
Share of these imports replaced
—t
Current imports of the family
HS 7207 · 2023 · UN Comtrade
—bn FCFA/yr
Imports avoided, gross
—bn FCFA/yr
After paying for imported inputs
With 100,000 t a year, local billet output would replace about 62% of imported billets: 34 to 39 billion FCFA of imports avoided each year, gross, at the landed cost of imported billets. For rebar, by contrast, the domestic market is already saturated.
- Imports
- Replaced by local output
- Output beyond current imports
Assumptions and data
| Parameter | Value used | Range | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapter 72 imports in 2025 | 412,049 t | — | Sourced | INS Cameroun, notes on foreign trade 2023, 2024 and 2025 (provisional, Feb 2026) |
| Value of those imports in 2025 | 170.1 bn FCFA | — | Sourced | INS Cameroun, notes on foreign trade 2023, 2024 and 2025 (provisional, Feb 2026) |
| Landed, duty-paid cost of imported billets | 367 FCFA/kg | 343 – 391 FCFA/kg | Derived | White paper 09, Figure 7.2: landed, duty-paid cost of imported billets, US$572 to 652 a tonne at October 2026 prices, converted at the planning rate of 600 FCFA to the dollar |
| Landed, duty-paid cost of imported wire rod | 467 FCFA/kg | 445 – 488 FCFA/kg | Derived | White paper 09, Figure 7.2: landed, duty-paid cost of imported wire rod, US$741 to 814 a tonne at October 2026 prices, converted at the planning rate of 600 FCFA to the dollar |
| Landed, duty-paid cost of imported rebar | 509 FCFA/kg | 485 – 533 FCFA/kg | Derived | White paper 09, Figure 7.2: landed, duty-paid cost of imported rebar, US$809 to 889 a tonne at October 2026 prices, converted at the planning rate of 600 FCFA to the dollar |
| Average unit value of all steel imports (chapter 72), used for sections and flat products | 482 FCFA/kg | 413 – 614 FCFA/kg | Derived | INS Cameroun chapter 72 import value ÷ tonnage: 2025 = 413, 2023–2025 pooled = 482, 2023 = 614 FCFA/kg |
| Share of the value spent abroad on inputs | 55% | 0 – 90% | Assumption | Cameroon Steel Labs estimate: national scrap is scarce (53,000–61,833 t/yr arising in 2006, largely taken up by existing mills), so about 90% of a first-phase metallic charge would be imported; metallics make up roughly 60% of the value of long products, plus a few per cent of electrodes, alloys and refractories; 0% would mean entirely local ore, scrap and consumables |
| Imports: Billets (HS 7207) | 161.4 kt (2023) | — | Sourced | UN Comtrade, Cameroon (reporter 120), HS 7207, 2023: 161.4 kt, of which Indonesia 125.5 kt (78%) |
| Imports: Rebar (HS 7214) | 4.9 kt (2022) | — | Sourced | UN Comtrade, Cameroon, HS 7214: 4.9 kt in 2022 (2023 tonnage not reported; value US$3.3m) |
| Imports: Wire rod (HS 7213) | 7.8 kt (2023) | — | Sourced | UN Comtrade, Cameroon, HS 7213, 2023: 7.8 kt (50.8 kt in 2019) |
| Imports: Sections (HS 7216) | 26.6 kt (2020) | — | Sourced | UN Comtrade, Cameroon, HS 7216: 26.6 kt in 2020, the latest year with a reported tonnage; value US$26.3m in 2023 |
| Imports: Flat products (HS 7208–7210) | 96 kt (2022–2023) | — | Derived | UN Comtrade, Cameroon: HS 7208 hot-rolled 18.0 kt (2022), HS 7209 cold-rolled 47.5 kt and HS 7210 coated 30.5 kt (2023); sum by Cameroon Steel |
| National capacity and demand: Rebar | 627 kt / 180 kt | — | Derived | Cameroon Tribune, « Production : les acteurs en présence », 11 May 2026 (Ocitram figures; printed “627 tonnes”, read as 627 kt) |
| National capacity and demand: Wire rod | 72 kt / 36 kt | — | Sourced | Cameroon Tribune, 11 May 2026 (Ocitram figures, wire rod and nails) |
| Suspension of rebar imports | 2016 | — | Sourced | EcoMatin, « Métallurgie : les importations du fer à béton interdites jusqu’à nouvel ordre », 10 Apr 2023 |
| Fixed parity of the CFA franc | €1 = 655.957 FCFA | — | Sourced | Fixed parity of the CFA franc (BEAC zone) with the euro |
How this is calculated
Substitution. Tonnes replaced = minimum (local output; imports of the family). Imports are those of the latest year with a reported tonnage (UN Comtrade, 2020 to 2023 depending on the line): Cameroon has not yet reported 2024 and 2025 to Comtrade. The year is shown next to every figure.
Value avoided. Tonnes replaced × the unit value of the product. For billets, wire rod and rebar this is the landed, duty-paid cost of the imported product at October 2026 prices (White paper 09, Figure 7.2): US$572 to 652 a tonne for billets, that is 343 to 391 FCFA/kg at the planning rate of 600 FCFA to the dollar; US$741 to 814 for wire rod; US$809 to 889 for rebar. For sections and flat products, for which no landed cost is published, the tool uses the average value of all steel imports (chapter 72), derived from INS totals: 413 FCFA/kg in 2025 (low), 482 FCFA/kg over 2023–2025 (central), 614 FCFA/kg in 2023 (high). A billet is worth well below that average: applying it to billets would overstate the saving. The landed cost includes import duties and levies, which stay in Cameroon, so the foreign-exchange saving is somewhat lower.
Net. A steelworks imports part of its inputs (scrap, reduced iron, electrodes, alloys). The value kept in the country is the gross value × (1 − imported share).
Saturation. Where published national capacity exceeds demand (rebar, wire rod), extra output does not replace imports: it displaces local mills or must be exported. The tool says so instead of adding it up.
Limits. Orders of magnitude, before price, exchange-rate and tax effects. Neither a sales forecast nor a commitment.
Sources
- INS Cameroun, Évolution du commerce extérieur en 2025 (provisional version), Feb 2026
- INS Cameroun, notes on foreign trade 2023 and 2024
- UN Comtrade, Cameroon (reporter 120), HS 7207–7216, 2019–2023
- Cameroon Tribune, « Production : les acteurs en présence », 11 May 2026 (Ocitram figures)
- EcoMatin, « Métallurgie : les importations du fer à béton interdites jusqu’à nouvel ordre », 10 Apr 2023
- Sikafinance, 30 Sep 2026 (local scrap covers about 40% of mill feedstock)