Labs · Carbon and CBAM calculator
What is the footprint of a tonne of steel, and what would it cost at the EU border?
Phase 1: about 0.58 t of CO₂ per tonne, 0.36 t of it counted by CBAM. Exported to the EU in 2030, about €21/t, against €131/t for blast-furnace steel.
Result
IllustrativeIn 2030, a tonne of steel from Cameroon Steel’s Phase 1 exported to the EU would carry about €21 of CBAM charges (0.36 t of CO₂ counted, 0.11 t of it covered by free allocation), against about €131 for a tonne from a blast furnace. Over 20,000 t a year, that is €2.2 million less than blast-furnace steel.
Illustrative, not tax advice. The rules of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are evolving: benchmarks, default values and certificate prices are set by successive implementing acts. The benchmarks used here are approximations, and no carbon price paid in Cameroon is deducted.
€21/t
Indicative CBAM cost per tonne Illustrative
€0.41m
Per year, on the chosen tonnage
€131/t
Same tonne from a blast furnace
0.36t CO₂/t
Emissions counted
0.58t CO₂/t
Full footprint
The phase-out of free allowances
CBAM cost per tonne, year by year
Emissions counted in the chosen year · 2030
Dark: the part covered by free allocation (F × B); colour: the part paid for (t CO₂ per tonne).
Exposure before any free allocation, at the chosen price
- On the emissions CBAM counts (direct and precursors, including imported DRI): €30/t (the same basis as the chart on the Climate page)
- On the full footprint, electricity included: a separate figure, which CBAM does not count for steel today: €48/t
Model assumptions
12 assumptions
| Parameter | Value used | Range | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBAM certificate price, Q3 2026 | 82.32 €/t CO₂ | 20.00 – 200.00 | Sourced | European Commission, price of CBAM certificates (published 5 Oct 2026); weekly prices from 2027 |
| Share of free allocation retained (2030) | 51.5% | 0.0 – 97.5 | Sourced | Directive (EU) 2023/959: 97.5% (2026), 95 (2027), 90 (2028), 77.5 (2029), 51.5 (2030), 39 (2031), 26.5 (2032), 14 (2033), 0 (2034) |
| Free-allocation benchmark, electric-furnace steel | 0.215 t CO₂/t | — | Assumption | Proxy: EU ETS product benchmark “EAF carbon steel” 2021–2025, Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/447. The CBAM benchmarks of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2620 apply in practice and may differ |
| Free-allocation benchmark, blast-furnace hot metal | 1.288 t CO₂/t | — | Assumption | Proxy: EU ETS product benchmark “hot metal” 2021–2025, Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/447. The CBAM benchmarks of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2620 apply in practice and may differ |
| Carbon price already paid in Cameroon | 0 €/t CO₂ | — | Assumption | No explicit carbon price in force in Cameroon (assumption); a price paid at origin would reduce the certificates due |
| Tonnes exported to the EU | 20,000 t/yr | 1,000 – 300,000 | Illustrative | Illustrative: Cameroon Steel’s priority markets are Cameroon and Central Africa, outside CBAM |
| CO₂ intensity, blast furnace (world average) | 2.34 t CO₂/t | — | Sourced | worldsteel, Sustainability Indicators 2025 (2024 data) |
| Grid factor implicit in the world averages | 538 g CO₂/kWh | 450 – 550 | Assumption | IEA Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap (2020) world grid factor 538 g/kWh, used here to split the worldsteel averages into an electricity part and the rest |
| Carbon intensity of the Cameroon grid (2024) | 226 g CO₂/kWh | 200 – 300 | Sourced | Ember via Our World in Data, carbon intensity of electricity generation: Cameroon 225.9 g CO₂e/kWh in 2024, when hydropower supplied about 72% of generation; ARSEL reports about 90% hydro for 2025; the 2024 factor is kept as the prudent value |
| Sensitivity: Cameroon grid at the 2025 mix | 85 g CO₂/kWh | 74 – 96 | Illustrative | Order of magnitude, not a published factor: the 2025 mix reported by ARSEL (7,272.4 of 8,119.9 GWh from hydropower, about 10% thermal) combined with the thermal intensity implied by the Ember 2024 value (225.9 g/kWh with about 28% non-hydro generation); range of White paper 06, Chapter 3: about 74 g/kWh counting combustion only, about 96 g/kWh with life-cycle factors for hydro and solar; the tools use the midpoint |
| Direct furnace emissions (electrodes, carbon, lime) | 0.10 t CO₂/t liquid steel | 0.06 – 0.15 | Assumption | Cameroon Steel reference configuration RC-1, edition 10 Oct 2026 (planning estimate, not a design figure): 0.06–0.15 t/t |
| Upstream emissions of imported DRI (gas-based) | 0.7 t CO₂/t DRI | 0.5 – 0.9 | Assumption | Cameroon Steel reference configuration RC-1, edition 10 Oct 2026 (planning estimate, not a design figure): gas-based shaft furnace, 0.5–0.9 t/t |
How this is calculated
CBAM cost per tonne = certificate price × max(0, E − F × B). E is the intensity counted: for iron and steel the regulation currently counts only direct emissions, including those of precursors such as direct-reduced iron (Annex II of Regulation (EU) 2023/956); the “with electricity” option shows the sensitivity if indirect emissions were added. F is the share of free allocation still granted to EU producers in that year (97.5% in 2026, 51.5% in 2030, 0 in 2034) and B the route’s allocation benchmark. The comparison blast-furnace steel is assumed to be made on an average world grid.
Assumptions to know. The benchmarks used (0.215 t CO₂/t for electric-furnace steel, 1.288 t for hot metal) are the EU Emissions Trading System values for 2021–2025, taken as a proxy: the CBAM benchmarks set by Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2620 apply in practice and may differ. No carbon price paid in Cameroon is deducted. Intensities come from the steel route lab, so both tools give the same figures.
What the tool does not compute. Customs duties, verification costs, or the marked-up default values applied when verified data are missing. Cameroon Steel’s priority markets are Cameroon and Central Africa, which CBAM does not cover.
Sources
- European Commission, price of CBAM certificates (Q3 2026: €82.32/t CO₂)
- Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (CBAM), Article 7 and Annex II
- Directive (EU) 2023/959: phase-out of free allocation
- Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/447: 2021–2025 benchmarks (proxy)
- worldsteel, Sustainability Indicators 2025 (2024 data)
- Cameroon Steel, RC-1 reference configuration (10 Oct 2026)