方法与假设

A.1 Data conventions

Status labels. Sourced figures are read from the cited source. Derived figures are arithmetic on sourced inputs, with the inputs cited. Assumed figures are planning or analytical assumptions that no source states directly; each is listed with its range and basis in the table below. Illustrative figures are scenario calculations that combine sourced inputs with stated assumptions. Planned and indicative figures come from Cameroon Steel’s reference configuration RC-1 (edition 10 October 2026, marker [F]); Phase 1 figures are planned, later phases indicative.

Trade data. Totals by chapter and year come from the INS foreign-trade notes, in FCFA [C01] to [C05]. Detail by 4-digit line and partner comes from UN Comtrade, in US dollars, latest year 2023 for Cameroon [C06][C07]. The two sources are not reconciled line by line; shares and orders of magnitude are used. Comtrade unit values for billets (HS 7207) are above market prices in 2022 and 2023 and are not used as prices.

Exchange rates. The FCFA is pegged at 655.957 per euro. US dollar rates are derived from ECB monthly euro reference rates [W13]: 570 FCFA per US dollar (September 2026 average, EUR/USD 1.1513) for 2026 prices; 621 FCFA (October 2023, EUR/USD 1.0563) for the 2023 rebar comparison; 606 FCFA (2023 annual average) for 2023 Comtrade values. The 570 rate is the market rate used for October 2026 prices and market values. The cost comparison of Chapter 7 uses instead the RC-1 planning rate of 600 FCFA per US$ (560 to 650) [F], the series basis shared with White paper 04; at 600, the FCFA results of other chapters would move by about 5%, and in proportion to the rate across the range.

Prices. International prices are dated weekly assessments, not annual averages, which are not freely published for billets and rebar [G34] to [G40][W10]. Ranges are as published; midpoints are used only for charts.

A.2 Effective rate of protection (Chapter 3)

The effective rate of protection (ERP) of an activity j is ERP = (t_o minus Σ a_i × t_i) / (1 minus Σ a_i), where t_o is the tariff on the output, t_i the tariff on input i and a_i the share of input i in the value of the output at world prices [W20][W21]. World prices are CIF Cameroon: FOB midpoints from AISU on 3 October 2026 plus US$60 per tonne of freight (billet US$532.5, rebar US$685, wire rod US$715); sections are taken at US$760 (assumption within the US$700 to 850 range used in Chapter 9); imported metallics at US$422.5 delivered. Input coefficients: 1.15 t metallics per t billet; 1.04 t billet per t of rolled product; 1.21 t metallics per t of finished product [F]. Tariffs: CET 2023 [P24]. Only metallic inputs are included; other tradable inputs would change results by a few points. For domestic iron units, the input tariff is the duty embedded in their price: 10% at duty-inclusive import parity (ERP 10%), 0% at the world price (ERP 0.10 / (1 minus 0.912), about 114%).

A.3 Import parity (Chapters 3 and 7)

Duty-paid import parity = (FOB + freight and insurance) × (1 + CET + 0.002 × (1 + CET)) + port, clearance and delivery, before VAT. Freight and insurance: US$40 to 80 per tonne, assumed, consistent with UNCTAD’s estimate that African countries paid on average 11.4% of import value in international transport costs in 2005 to 2014 [W12]. Port, clearance and delivery: US$15 to 35 per tonne (2026) and US$20 to 40 per tonne (2023 rebar comparison), assumed. Other border charges that may apply (for example community levies other than the AU levy) are not included, which makes parity slightly conservative.

Rebar price comparison, October 2023. The homologated price of a 12 m Ø12 FE500 bar, 6,750 FCFA [C44], is divided by its nominal mass (0.888 kg/m × 12 m = 10.656 kg) to give 633,400 FCFA per tonne. Because the source does not state whether this price includes VAT at 19.25%, both readings are shown (531,200 FCFA per tonne if VAT-inclusive). The implied annual transfer is (domestic price minus parity) × 180,000 tonnes of domestic rebar demand [C30], across both readings and the parity range: about 3 to 33 bn FCFA.

A.4 Cash-cost model (Chapter 7)

Cash cost per tonne = metallics × price × 1.102 (CET and AU levy) + kWh × power price / 600 + consumables + labour + maintenance and overheads + delivery. Capital charges, working capital, finance costs and ramp-up losses are excluded. The model is a cost-structure illustration, not a cost estimate for any plant.

A.5 Foreign-exchange footprint (Chapter 9)

Net foreign exchange retained per tonne = border value (CIF) minus imported content. Imported content: status quo = 1.04 × billet CIF (US$505 to 560) + US$15 to 30 for imported rolls, spares and consumables; S1 = 1.21 × US$400 to 445 + US$45 to 75; S2 = S1 minus domestic scrap × US$400 to 445, with domestic scrap at 30,000 t a year (range 0 to 60,000) at every phase, about 0.1 t per t of rebar in Phase 1 [F]; sensitivity (Figure 9.2 only) = 0.6 × 1.21 × US$400 to 445 + US$45 to 75; S3 = US$65 to 115. Ranges combine the low end of border value with the high end of imported content, and vice versa; in S2 the price of the imported metallics replaced moves with the price in S1. Phase aggregates multiply per-tonne results by RC-1 volumes at full utilisation [F], which makes them upper bounds (Phase 1 nameplate 0.3 Mtpa; expected sustained output 270,000 to 300,000 t a year): Phase 1, 300,000 t of rebar and wire rod at US$660 to 710; Phase 2, 200,000 t of light sections at US$680 to 800; Phase 3, 500,000 t of heavy sections at US$700 to 850. Not deducted: freight on exports, displacement of domestic production, capital service, dividends, expatriate salaries and construction imports (Chapter 9 discusses each).

A.6 Fiscal ledger (Chapter 6)

Per 100,000 t of domestic rebar displacing re-rolled imported billets: duty forgone = 100,000 × 1.04 × US$505 to 560 × 10% × 570; duty on imported metallics (S1) = 100,000 × 1.21 × US$400 to 445 × 10% × 570; payroll-linked taxes = 167 jobs (RC-1 Phase 1 ratio) × gross wage 3.6 to 7.2 m FCFA per year × (employer 13.7% + employee 5.2% + effective income tax 8 to 15%). Employer contributions: CNPS 11.2%, housing fund 1.5%, employment fund 1% [P19][W06]; the CNPS ceiling and occupational-risk premium are ignored. VAT, corporate tax and incentives are excluded.

A.7 Employment ranges (Chapter 5)

Total jobs supported = direct jobs (RC-1) × multiplier, with 3.0 (RC-1 planning basis) as the lower and 6.2 (EUROFER Type I) as the upper value. Induced jobs are excluded. No Cameroon-specific steel multiplier is estimated.

Table A.1 Assumptions used in derived and illustrative calculations, with ranges and basis

Source: Cameroon Steel; sources as cited.

A.8 Sensitivity and limits

Three sensitivities dominate. First, the exchange rate: at 650 instead of 570 FCFA per dollar, every FCFA figure derived from dollar prices rises by 14%, including both the import bill and the foreign exchange retained. Second, the spread between product and metallic prices: a US$50 per tonne narrowing of the rebar-metallics spread would remove almost half of the foreign exchange retained per tonne in S1 at the midpoint, but would barely affect S3. Third, the power price: across the published benchmarks it moves the cash cost of rebar by about US$140 per tonne. The structural conclusions (that S1 retains about as much foreign exchange as re-rolling imported billets, that domestic iron units multiply the saving, and that a works on imported metallics competes behind the tariff rather than at the border) hold across the ranges tested.