证据缺口：尚待查明的问题及解决途径

11.1 Why an evidence register matters

A public white paper is only as credible as its weakest number. Throughout this paper, figures that could not be traced to a published source or to Cameroon Steel’s reference configuration were left out, and figures that rest on company statements, snippets or dated studies were labelled as such. Some questions, however, cannot be answered from public sources today. Most of them concern the later phases; five (E6, E8, E10, E11 and E18) must be answered before Phase 1. Table 11.1 sets them out, with the party best placed to close each one and a target date.

Table 11.1 Evidence register: open questions, their importance, how they can be resolved, by whom and when

Source: Cameroon Steel. Sources in square brackets point to the latest public evidence on each question. Target dates are Cameroon Steel’s planning targets, tied to the RC-1.1 schedule; dates for public bodies are proposals, not their commitments.

11.2 The five gaps that matter most

Grade (E1, E2). Everything about local ironmaking depends on whether Cameroonian ore can be upgraded economically to about 67.5% Fe with low silica and alumina. The 2014 testwork result of 68% Fe with 1.8% silica and 0.2% alumina [O04] is encouraging but is a laboratory result on a limited sample. A pilot programme should test representative samples from the blocks that would supply local transformation, through every step from grinding to reduction. Its results would decide whether the conventional gas-DRI route is open, or whether the smelter route described in Chapter 2 is the realistic option.

Gas (E4, E5). The departure of the LNG vessel in July 2026 [E09] makes gas available in principle, but the reserves behind it are not publicly certified, and about 600 bcf were developed for the vessel and are in natural decline [E02]. A DR module of 1 Mtpa would need 8.4 to 9.1 bcf a year for perhaps twenty years or more. Without an audit, no lender will finance it.

Power (E6, E7). The first phase can be designed within the initial 100 MW of the Kribi supply, but that supply serves the whole port platform and no allocation to the steelworks has been agreed; the arc furnace also needs power-quality measures at the connection. Its operating cost depends on a high-voltage contract whose framework does not yet exist, and the later phases depend on the timing of the 330 to 400 MW stage of the substation.

Offtake terms (E12). The 15% rule is the legal hook for local ironmaking, but the terms of the clauses in the existing conventions are not public and the Mining Code has not yet been complemented by an implementing text. Until grade, price and timing are known, the value of the rule to a local processor cannot be assessed.

Iron units for Phase 1 (E8, E18). The first phase does not depend on Cameroonian ore, but it does depend on iron units. RC-1.1 assumes only about 30 kt/yr of domestic scrap, within a range of 0 to 60 kt/yr bounded by the 2006 national study [C42][F01]; the rest of a charge of about 0.36 Mtpa must be imported as scrap, DRI or HBI, in a world market where about 10.8 Mt of DRI was traded in 2025 [T13]. Supply agreements with several origins and a delivered-cost model to Kribi are needed before the first phase is financed.

11.3 How these gaps will be closed

Cameroon Steel intends to address the gaps within its control as part of the feasibility work for each phase and to publish what it can in later editions of this series. Several gaps lie with public bodies and convention holders: the gas audit, the power framework, the tariff lines, the rules of origin and the publication of convention terms. Chapter 10 recommends that the Prime Minister’s mines-metallurgy committee coordinate them, because they cut across ministries and companies.

Three principles will govern updates of this paper:

1. Every new figure will carry its source and date, and figures that change will be shown with their previous value.
2. Company and official statements will remain labelled as such until they are supported by code-compliant estimates or published data.
3. Project figures will remain labelled planned or indicative until they are confirmed by engineering and financing decisions.