方法与假设

A.1 Scope, cut-off and sources

The paper covers the iron and steel value chain in Cameroon, from iron-ore deposits to finished long products, with comparisons to other producers. The data cut-off is 10 October 2026. Evidence was compiled from three bodies of research prepared for the Cameroon Steel white-paper series (market and technology, environment and society, and the Kribi port and zone), from Cameroon Steel’s reference configuration RC-1, and from additional public sources consulted in October 2026. Every source cited is listed in Annex C with its title, publisher, date and address. Documents of the Kribi port authority are cited by title and date without a web address.

Where sources disagreed, the paper used the most authoritative and recent value and named it: code-compliant reserve statements over company or ministerial statements; national statistics over press reports; the latest vintage of international data series. Figures that could not be traced to a source were not printed.

A.2 Status labels

Every exhibit carries a status chip, and figures in the text use the same vocabulary:

• Sourced: read directly from a cited source.
• Derived: arithmetic by Cameroon Steel on sourced inputs, with the method and assumptions given in this annex.
• Assumed: a planning assumption with a stated range, not read from a source (for example RC-1.1’s domestic scrap of about 30 kt/yr).
• Illustrative: a calculation designed to show an order of magnitude or a structure, using simplified assumptions; not a forecast.
• Planned / indicative: a figure from Cameroon Steel’s reference configuration RC-1. These are engineering planning values based on international benchmarks, not commitments, and will change with detailed design.

A.3 Mass balance of the ore-to-steel chain

The mass flow of Figure 6.1 and the value calculations of Chapter 8 use the following parameters. Central values are used in the text; ranges indicate plausible variation.

Table A.1 Mass-balance parameters

Source: as shown.

With these values, one tonne of finished long product requires 1/0.96 = 1.042 t of billets; 1.042/0.98 = 1.063 t of liquid steel; 1.063/0.88 = 1.208 t of metallic charge; and, for an all-DRI charge, 1.208 × 1.45 = 1.751 t of pellets, about the same tonnage of concentrate, and 1.751/0.45 = 3.89 t of itabirite. A DRI module of 1 Mtpa therefore needs about 1.45 Mtpa of pellets and about 3.2 Mtpa of itabirite, and its DRI supports about 1/1.208 = 0.83 Mtpa of finished product.

Gas for a DR module. At 9.2 to 10 GJ per tonne of DRI, a 1 Mtpa module needs 9.2 to 10 PJ a year. At about 1.094 GJ per thousand standard cubic feet (Mscf), that is 8.4 to 9.1 million Mscf, or 8.4 to 9.1 bcf a year, about 11 to 12% of Cameroon’s 2025 production of 75.5 bcf [E04]. At 10 GJ per tonne, the gas per tonne of DRI is about 9.1 Mscf, which costs about US$29 at the 2025 price paid by the Kribi power plant (about US$3.2/Mscf) and about US$51 at the 2025 price paid by an industrial buyer (about US$5.6/Mscf) [E04].

Electricity with a DR module. RC-1’s full-capacity average load of about 94 MW uses the EAF planning value of 450 kWh per tonne of liquid steel [F01]. With 30% DRI or HBI in the charge, the upper planning value is about 490 kWh/t (about 14.5 kWh/t more for each 10 points of DRI [T09]), which adds about 43 GWh a year at full capacity, about 5 MW on average (about 1.5 MW in Phase 1, taking its average load to about 38 MW). Adding a 1 Mtpa DR plant at about 73 kWh per tonne adds about 73 GWh a year, or about 9 MW on average; raising the DRI share of the charge from 30% to 100% adds about 7 × 14.5 = 102 kWh per tonne of liquid steel, or about 108 GWh a year for 1.06 Mt of liquid steel, about 13.5 MW on average [T09]. Every average load in this paper is annual energy divided by 8,000 operating hours. With pellet handling and auxiliaries, the full chain’s average load is estimated at about 115 to 130 MW. An arc furnace offers schedulable load, since melts can be timed around system peaks, not interruptible load. These are averages; the peak demand of an electric arc furnace is higher and must be met by the grid connection.

A.4 Value-capture calculation

For each step, the value embodied in one tonne of finished rebar is the requirement of that step’s iron-bearing product (tonnes per tonne of rebar) multiplied by its price (US$/t). The increment of a step is the value embodied at that step minus the value embodied at the step before; it is a gross price spread, not value added. Requirements are 1.751 t of pellets (valued at the ore price), 1.208 t of iron units, 1.042 t of billets and 1 t of rebar.

Table A.2 Price cases used in Chapter 8 (US$/t)

Source: as shown.

The share of the gross price build-up occurring in Cameroon under each configuration is the sum of the step increments carried out in Cameroon divided by the rebar price: rolling only for today’s re-rollers; rolling and melting for a melt shop on imported iron units; rolling, melting and reduction for direct reduction on imported pellets (before deducting any pellet premium, which would accrue abroad); and all steps for a chain using Cameroonian DR-grade ore. Figure ES.1 shows the central case, with whiskers spanning the three price cases: 13 to 22% today, 28 to 36% with a melt shop, 72 to 73% with direct reduction on imported pellets. None of these shares deducts imported consumables, imported services or the capital charge of foreign-financed plant.

Value per tonne of concentrate is the value embodied at each step divided by the concentrate requirement: US$370/1.45 for DRI, US$487/1.751 for billets and US$625/1.751 for rebar.

Limitations. The prices refer to different products, places and dates between 2025 and October 2026; the ore is valued at the 62% Fe index although DR-grade pellets carry an unpublished premium; capital, operating and financing costs are ignored; and international rather than regulated Cameroonian prices are used. The results describe where market value sits in the chain, not the revenue or margin of any plant.

A.5 RC-1 reference configuration

RC-1 is Cameroon Steel’s planning configuration for a phased electric-arc-furnace long-products steelworks at Kribi. Its phases, capacities and utility needs are derived from capacities stated in project studies and from international benchmarks applied in a simple model maintained by Cameroon Steel [F01]. The benchmarks are listed below so that readers can reproduce the indicative loads and intensities.

Table A.3 RC-1 benchmarks (planned / indicative)

Source: Cameroon Steel reference configuration RC-1 (planning estimate), edition RC-1.1, 10 October 2026 [F01].

Worked example, Phase 1. Electricity: 0.319 Mt of liquid steel (0.3 Mt ÷ 0.94) × (450 + 70) kWh/t + 0.3 Mt rolled × (110 + 300) kWh/t = 289 GWh a year; divided by 8,000 operating hours, that is an average load of about 36 MW. Emissions: 289 GWh × 226 g/kWh + 0.319 Mt × 0.10 t = about 97 kt of CO₂ a year, or about 0.32 t per tonne of finished steel; adding 0.109 Mt of imported DRI or HBI (30% of a metallic charge of 0.363 Mt) × 0.7 t = 76 kt gives about 0.58 t per tonne.

RC-1 does not include, and this paper does not state, investment amounts or financial returns for the project.

A.6 Risk ratings

Risks in Chapter 9 were rated on a three-point scale for likelihood over the next decade and for impact on the chain. Ratings are analyst judgements informed by the evidence cited for each risk, not probabilities. A risk is critical when both ratings are high.

A.7 Units, currencies and conventions

• Tonnes are metric (1 t = 1,000 kg). kt: thousand tonnes; Mt: million tonnes; Mtpa: million tonnes a year; dmt: dry metric tonne. 1 short ton = 0.907 t.
• Gas: 1 Mscf = one thousand standard cubic feet, about 28.3 m³ and about 1.094 GJ; bcf = billion cubic feet; Tcf = trillion cubic feet; 1 Gcal = 4.1868 GJ.
• Currencies: the CFA franc (FCFA) is pegged at 655.957 FCFA per euro. US dollar conversions of market figures use the market rate of the period of the source and are approximate (SNH used rates from 624.9 to 561.0 FCFA per dollar during 2025 [E04]; the 2026 to 2030 iron-ore programme is converted at about 565). Project figures use RC-1’s planning rate of 600 FCFA per dollar, with a range of 560 to 650 [F01]; at that rate, the dollar equivalents of FCFA market figures in this paper would move by about 5%.
• Prices are in nominal US dollars per tonne on the basis stated (FOB, CFR) and dated.
• Rebar mass: a 12 mm bar weighs 0.888 kg per metre, or about 10.66 kg per 12 m bar.
• Apparent steel use is production plus imports minus exports of finished steel, as defined by worldsteel [G05]. Cameroon’s per-capita figure is derived from the industry estimate of apparent use and population estimates.
• HS codes: chapter 72 covers iron and steel; chapter 73 articles of iron and steel. Four- and six-digit lines are cited where relevant (7207 billets, 7213 wire rod, 7214 rebar and bars, 7216 sections).
• Typography: ranges are written with "to"; compound place names are joined by hyphens (for example Mbalam-Nabeba).