方法与假设

A.1 Evidence and status codes

The research for this paper used public sources available on or before 10 October 2026: legal texts, regulators’ reports, statements and documents of the Port Autonome de Kribi (PAK) and of Kribi Port Industrial Zone S.A. (KPIZ), statistics from Cameroon’s national statistics institute (INS) and from UN Comtrade, reports of international organisations, peer-reviewed studies and reputable business press. Documents of PAK are cited by title and date, without web links.

Every figure and table carries one of four status codes:

• Sourced: the number was read in the cited source.
• Derived: the number is Cameroon Steel’s arithmetic on sourced inputs; the calculation is shown below.
• Assumed: the number is a stated planning assumption, with a range.
• Illustrative: the exhibit shows a scenario or a schematic, not a measurement or a forecast.

Where sources conflict, the paper says so in the text and states which figure it uses, preferring primary over secondary sources and the most recent edition of a dataset. Cameroon Steel’s own planning figures, drawn from the Cameroon Steel reference configuration RC-1 (planning estimate) for a 1 Mtpa electric-arc-furnace long-products works, are cited as [S112] and described as indicative; they are not design values and do not represent commitments. The phased pathway of that configuration is described in White paper 03, Chapter 9.

A.2 Planning assumptions for one steel tenant

Table A.1 assumedIndicative planning assumptions for one electric-arc-furnace long-products works, with ranges

Source: as listed.

With these assumptions the indicative annual balances are: at 0.3 Mtpa, about 289 GWh of electricity (36 MW average), 0.6 million m³ of make-up water, about 45 kt of slag and about 351 kt of port-linked inbound cargo; at 0.5 Mtpa, about 422 GWh (53 MW), 1.0 million m³ and about 604 kt; at 1.0 Mtpa, about 753 GWh (94 MW), 2.0 million m³, about 149 kt of slag, 16 kt of dust, 37 million Nm³ of oxygen and about 1.24 Mt of port-linked inbound cargo [S112]. Port-linked inbound cargo is the metallic charge less domestic scrap, plus consumables. The electricity of the first phase is 0.319 Mt of liquid steel (0.3 Mt ÷ 0.94) × 520 kWh/t + 0.3 Mt rolled × 410 kWh/t = 289 GWh; ÷ 8,000 h = 36 MW. The induction heating applies to the first-phase line only, so each further tonne of product adds about 663 kWh (520 ÷ 0.94 + 110). At the upper planning value of 490 kWh/t for the furnace, the first phase’s average load would be about 1.5 MW higher.

A.3 Derived calculations

Table A.2 derivedDerived figures used in the paper and how they were calculated

Source: inputs as cited in the chapters; arithmetic by Cameroon Steel.

A.4 Maps and distances

The Kribi map (Figure 2.1) was drawn from an OpenStreetMap extract downloaded through the Overpass API with a data base of 24 July 2026, projected to UTM zone 32N. It shows coastline, roads, rivers, residential and industrial land use, protected-area limits and named places as mapped by OpenStreetMap contributors [S111]. The 225 kV line is drawn as a straight schematic between the gas power plant and the port, and the substation position is indicative. The regional map (Figure 6.2) uses Natural Earth admin-0 boundaries [S110]; corridors are schematic lines through the cities they serve, and the Mbalam-Nabeba deposits are placed approximately. No project boundary or parcel is shown on any map.

Straight-line distances (Figures 6.1 and 9.2) are geodesic distances on the WGS84 ellipsoid. City distances are measured between approximate city-centre positions; distances to protected areas are measured from the centroid of the port breakwater as mapped in OpenStreetMap to the nearest vertex of each protected-area boundary. Road distances are longer.

A.5 Scenario in Figure 10.2

The zone-load scenario is illustrative. Steel and metals load follows one tenant’s phases on the schedule of Cameroon Steel’s reference configuration [S112]. It is zero until the first heat of Phase 1 in the second half of 2030, averages about 10 MW in 2030 and reaches 36 MW in 2031. Phase 2 (second melt line and light/medium sections mill), indicatively 2032 to 2034, is drawn as a ramp from the start of 2032, giving annual averages of about 40 MW in 2032 and 53 MW in 2034. Phase 3 (melt-shop expansion and heavy-section mill), after 2034, takes the tenant to about 94 MW in 2037. A second metals tenant from the mid-2030s brings steel and metals load to about 120 MW in 2037 and 160 MW in 2040. Other tenants’ load rises from 10 MW in 2026 to 150 MW in 2040. Total load reaches the first stage’s 100 MW in 2032. Supply follows the announced stages: about 13 MW locally available before 2027, 100 MW from 2027 and the midpoint of 330 to 400 MW from 2031. No date has been published for that second stage: 2031 is assumed in this paper and is the date it recommends. The purpose is to show the timing problem, not to forecast demand.

A.6 Limitations

The paper is a desk study. It does not include site measurements, interviews with the authorities or confidential information, and it does not assess any individual project’s economics. Statistics from operators and the press were used where official series are not available, and conflicts are reported. Readers should treat the indicative figures as orders of magnitude for planning.