仍有十三项证据缺口，其中多数可以通过公开已有数据来弥补

11.1 Why the gaps matter

Every chapter of this paper has drawn a conclusion from incomplete evidence, and has said so. A reader who wants to act on the conclusions needs to know which ones are robust and which depend on numbers still to be confirmed. The conclusions that are robust to the gaps are these:

• Cameroon’s electricity is predominantly hydro and low-carbon, whichever dataset is used [S01][S10].
• No regulated tariff exists for loads above 10 MW, and the published benchmarks span a factor of about six [S01][S03][S04].
• An arc furnace of RC-1 Phase 1 size needs a strong high-voltage connection and dynamic compensation at any plausible fault level at Kribi.
• The Hilli FLNG’s departure removed the main buyer of Cameroonian gas [S05][S16].
• Phase 1 of an electric steelworks needs no gas [S07].

The conclusions that depend on the gaps concern sizes and timing: how much compensation is needed, how much gas is available for how long, at what price large users will contract, and when the port substation’s later stage will be built.

11.2 The gaps and how they will be closed

Table 11.1 Evidence gaps, their importance and the route to resolution

Source: Cameroon Steel analysis.

11.3 Gaps that are specific to the project

Some uncertainties belong to the steelworks rather than to the public record, and Cameroon Steel will resolve them through its own engineering:

• Benchmarks versus guarantees. RC-1’s energy figures are planning values from published benchmarks [S07]. Front-end engineering with the technology supplier will replace them with guaranteed consumption figures for the furnace, ladle furnace, induction heaters and mills. The Phase 1 electricity estimate, planned at about 289 to 302 GWh a year, could move within the wider range of about 193 to 354 GWh shown in Chapter 9.
• Maximum demand for Phases 1 and 2. RC-1 estimates maximum demand for Phase 1 and the full works but not for the intermediate stage, for which White paper 03, Chapter 9, interpolates about 85 to 110 MVA (derived). It will be estimated when the second melt line is specified.
• Metallic charge. The share of imported DRI or HBI, planned at about 30% within a range of 20% to 50% [S07], affects both furnace electricity and Scope 3 emissions. It will depend on scrap availability and prices, which are the subject of other papers in this series.
• The induction-heating trade-off. The planning value of 300 kWh per tonne of billet depends on how much hot charging is achieved. Plant trials after commissioning will establish the real figure.

11.4 Data that would help every investor

Several gaps would disappear if a few institutions published data they already hold. Chapter 10 recommends an annual energy data release covering: fault levels at major high-voltage nodes; a reconciled national gas balance by field and by buyer; generation by plant with planned and actual output; and a harmonised grid emission factor. The regulator’s 2025 annual report [S01] and SNH’s 2025 petroleum data [S05] already go a long way: this paper could not have been written without them. Extending them in these directions would serve every industrial investor considering Cameroon.

11.5 How this paper will be updated

This is a first edition. Cameroon Steel intends to update it when material new evidence becomes available, in particular:

• after the 225 kV Kribi line and substation are commissioned, with measured network data;
• after the State’s acquisition of the Kribi and Dibamba thermal plants closes [S29];
• after the publication of any large-user tariff framework, gas allocation framework or wheeling rules;
• after Cameroon Steel’s front-end engineering for Phase 1.

Each update will state what changed and why, and will keep the status labels (sourced, derived, assumed, illustrative) used throughout this edition.